Research Projects

I take a highly collaborative approach to research, using assessments of land use and policy to take science to scale.

U.S. Agricultural Land Use

The U.S. landscape is a dynamic environment where croplands and grasslands often compete and yet we continue lose the most productive of these agricultural lands to urban expansion and sprawl. Climate change and regional water scarcity further intensify these interactions. My core research combines satellite-based earth observation with industry- and producer-level data to monitor agricultural landscapes and their interactions with natural ecosystems, urban lands, and water use.

Land Use Change & Land Availability

Understanding agricultural land use is essential for designing and implementing effective conservation and production systems. I monitor U.S. landscape changes and their impacts on climate, water, and biodiversity to inform sustainable land use and feedstock-sourcing strategies that safeguard both nature and production. These insights offer policymakers, industry leaders, and scientists robust data to inform decision making and program implementation across multiple scales and solution spaces.

Farmland Protection

Urban and suburban development continues to destroy, fragment, or compromise productive agricultural lands and high-quality habitat. In partnership with American Farmland Trust, I led the modeling team for Farms Under Threat 2040 which projects urban sprawl and climate impacts on agricultural lands through the year 2040. This work is being used to help quantify the benefits of farmland protection and identify priority areas for conservation to ensure a resilient agricultural landscape and economy.

Water Use & Irrigation Sustainability

In partnership with USGS and NASA, we're mapping irrigation practices at the field level across the U.S. Our team's Landsat-based Irrigation Dataset (LANID) is the first (and only) nationwide field-resolution map of annual irrigated extent, and we are expanding this collaborative work to assess irrigation system types and water sources to improve agricultural water management, enhance resiliency, and identify opportunities for energy and water savings. Reach out if you'd like early access to any of our forthcoming data!

Nature-based Solutions for the Agriculture Sector

According to the U.N. IPCC Scenarios for limiting global warming to 1.5°C to 2°C by mid-to-late century, land-based climate mitigation strategies will need to play a significant role in removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. How, where, and the extent to which we deploy these nature-based technologies has yet to be resolved but will significantly alter U.S. and global landscapes over the next several decades. My research assesses the realistic potential and tradeoffs associated with these opportunities in order to guide prioritization, support decision-making, and accelerate appropriate implementation.

Regenerative Agricultural Practices

Expanding regenerative practices—such as cover cropping, conservation tillage, and perennialization—can improve ecosystem services and reduce the environmental footprint of agriculture. Through partnerships with national environmental organizations and federal agencies, we're researching ways to increase the adoption and carbon durability of climate-smart practices within U.S. agricultural systems.

Sustainable Bioenergy

Understanding land use and availability is essential for designing and implementing effective bioenergy solutions. My research identifies marginal, abandoned, and active agricultural lands across the U.S. that are suitable for biomass-based and other rural renewable energy production systems to offer policymakers, industry leaders, and scientists robust data to inform national renewable energy policy and innovations across the entire field- to- product pipeline.

Grassland Conservation

Preventing the conversion of grasslands to cropland is the largest climate mitigation opportunity within the agricultural sectors of both the U.S. and Canada, and the restoration of cultivated landscapes to perennial vegetation offers additional opportunity. Through work with the USDA and partners, I assess the potential of grasslands-focused federal programs and the broader suite of grassland conservation approaches to store, protect, and sequester additional carbon to mitigate climate change, enhance biodiversity, and support our rural communities.

Data-driven Decision- and Policy-making Insights

Effective policy is essential for accelerating conservation and supporting a sustainable bioeconomy. I work closely with policymakers, agricultural stakeholders, and international partners to produce science-based insights that inform national strategies, ensure sustainable supply chains, and enhance conservation programs for rural resilience.

Publications

For the most up-to-date listing of publications and citation counts, see my Google Scholar page.

Submitted:

3. Pates N, N Hendricks, TJ Lark. Misclassification Error in Remote Sensing Matters: The Effect of Ethanol Plants on Local Cropland Transitions. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. (provisionally accepted)

2. O'Neill E, TJ Lark, Y Xie, S Kim, B Dale, GP Robertson, B Basso, and C Maravelias. Available Land for Cellulosic Biofuel Production: A Supply Chain Centered Comparison. Environmental Research Letters. (accepted) http://arks.princeton.edu/ark:/88435/dsp01hx11xj530

1. Martin G, K Autin, TJ Lark, S Lee, C Clark. Tracking cropland transitions: a comparative analysis of U.S. land cover change data. PLOS ONE. (accepted)

Published:

32. Oldfield, EE et al. (27 authors including TJ Lark). 2024. Greenhouse gas mitigation on croplands: clarifying the debate on knowns, unknowns and risks to move forward with effective management interventions. Carbon Management. https://doi.org/10.1080/17583004.2024.2365896

31. Uludere Aragon N, Y Xie, D Bigelow, TJ Lark, AJ Eagle. 2024. The realistic potential of soil carbon sequestration in US croplands for climate mitigation. Earth's Future. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003866

30. AR Ruis, C Barford, J Brohinsky, Y Tan, M Bougie, Z Cai, TJ Lark, and DW Shaffer. 2024. iPlan: A Platform for Constructing Localized, Reduced-Form Models of Land-Use Impacts. Multimodal Technologies and Interaction. https://doi.org/10.3390/mti8040030

29. Xie Y, SA Spawn-Lee, VC Radeloff, H Yin, GP Robertson, TJ Lark. 2024. Cropland abandonment between 1986 and 2018 across the United States: spatiotemporal patterns and current land uses. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2d12

28. McLellan EL, et al. (19 authors including TJ Lark). 2024. Improving ecosystem health in highly altered river basins: a generalized framework and its application to the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin. Frontiers in Environmental Science. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2024.1332934

27. Briske D, et al. (14 authors including TJ Lark). 2023. Supplying ecosystem services on US rangelands. Nature Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01194-6

26. Lark TJ. 2023. Interactions between US biofuels policy and the Endangered Species Act. Biological Conservation. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2022.109869 (Journal Impact Factor: 7.5)

25. Kim S, B Dale, R Martinez-Feria, B Basso, K Thelen, C Maravelias, D Landis, TJ Lark, and GP Robertson. 2023. Global warming intensity of biofuel derived from switchgrass grown on marginal land in Michigan. GCB Bioenergy. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.13024

24. Xie Y, M Hunter, S Lischka, R Murphy, T Nogeire-McRae, A Sorensen, J Suraci, and TJ Lark. 2023. U.S. Farmland Under Threat of Urbanization: Future Development Scenarios to 2040. Land. https://doi.org/10.3390/land12030574

23. Edwards M, et al. (20 authors including TJ Lark). 2022. Satellite Data Applications for Sustainable Energy Transitions. Frontiers in Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.3389/frsus.2022.910924

22. Lark TJ, NP Hendricks, N Pates, A Smith, SA Spawn, MF Bougie, EG Booth, CJ Kucharik, HK Gibbs. 2022. Reply to Falconi et al.: Economic red herrings and resistance to new modeling hinder progress in assessing ethanol’s land use change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2216091119

21. Lark TJ, NP Hendricks, N Pates, A Smith, SA Spawn, MF Bougie, EG Booth, CJ Kucharik, HK Gibbs. 2022. Environmental outcomes of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2101084119

20. Xie Y, HK Gibbs, TJ Lark. 2021. Landsat-based Irrigation Dataset (LANID): 30-m resolution maps of irrigation distribution, frequency, and change for the US, 1997–2017. Earth System Science Data. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5689-2021

19. Spawn-Lee SA, TJ Lark, H Gibbs, RA Houghton, CJ Kucharik, C Malins, REO Pelton, GP Robertson. 2021. Comment on ‘Carbon intensity of corn ethanol in the United States: state of the science’. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2e35

18. Pelton REO, SA Spawn-Lee, TJ Lark, T Kim, N Springer, P Hawthorne, DP Ray, Jennifer Schmitt. 2021. Land use leverage points to reduce GHG emissions in US agricultural supply chains. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2775

17. Khanna M, et al. (12 authors including SA Spawn-Lee and TJ Lark). 2021. Redefining marginal land for bioenergy crop production. Global Change Biology-Bioenergy. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12877

16. Drever CR, et al. (38 authors including SA Spawn-Lee and TJ Lark). 2021. Natural Climate Solutions for Canada. Science Advances. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd6034

15. Chen P, Y Yuan, W Li, SD LeDuc, TJ Lark, X Zhang, CM Clark. 2021. Assessing the Impacts of Recent Crop Expansion on Water Quality in the Missouri River Basin Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002284

14. Xie Y and TJ Lark. 2021. Mapping annual irrigation from Landsat imagery and environmental variables across the conterminous United States. Remote Sensing of Environment. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2021.112445

13. Zhang X, TJ Lark, CM Clark, Y Yuan, SD LeDuc. 2021. Grassland-to-cropland conversion increased soil, nutrient, and carbon losses in the US Midwest between 2008 and 2016. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abecbe

12. Lark TJ, I Schelly, HK Gibbs. 2021. Accuracy, Bias, and Improvements in Mapping Crops and Cropland across the United States Using the USDA Cropland Data Layer. Remote Sensing. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13050968

11. Lark, TJ, SA Spawn, M Bougie, HK Gibbs. 2020. Cropland expansion in the United States produces marginal yields at high costs to wildlife. Nature Communications. (IF=12.1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18045-z

10. Lark, TJ. 2020. Protecting our prairies: Research and policy actions for conserving America's grasslands. Land Use Policy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104727

9. SA Spawn, CC Sullivan, TJ Lark, HK Gibbs. 2019. Harmonized global maps of above and belowground biomass carbon density in the year 2010. Scientific data. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0444-4

8. Xie Y, TJ Lark, J Brown, and HK Gibbs. 2019. Mapping irrigated cropland extent across the conterminous United States at 30 m resolution using a semi-automatic training approach on Google Earth Engine. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2019.07.005

7. Lark, TJ, B Larson, I Schelley, S Batish, HK Gibbs. 2019. Accelerated conversion of native prairie to cropland in Minnesota. Environmental Conservation. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0376892918000437

6. Spawn, SA, TJ Lark, HK Gibbs. 2019. Carbon emissions from cropland expansion in the United States. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab0399

8. Runge C, A Plantinga, A Larsen, D Naugle, K Helmstedt, S Polasky, P Donnelly, J Smith, TJ Lark, J Lawler, S Martinuzzi, J Fargione. 2018. Unintended habitat loss on private land from grazing restrictions on public lands. Journal of Applied Ecology. (2018 IF=5.8). https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13271

4. Fargione JE, et al. (38 authors including SA Spawn-Lee and TJ Lark). 2018. Natural Climate Solutions for the United States. Science Advances. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat1869

3. Lark, TJ, RM Mueller, DM Johnson, HK Gibbs. 2017. Measuring land-use and land-cover change using the USDA Cropland Data Layer: Cautions and Recommendations. Intl J of Applied Earth Obs and Geoinformatics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2017.06.007

2. Wright, CK, B Larson, TJ Lark, HK Gibbs. 2017. Recent grassland losses are concentrated around U.S. ethanol refineries. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6446

1. Lark, TJ, JM Salmon, HK Gibbs. 2015. Cropland expansion outpaces agricultural and biofuel policies in the United States. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044003

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